Русская версия

Why was the fall of USSR without blood shed?

(This article was highly rated by Leonid Grach. Today Leonid Grach is people's deputy of Ukraine, that is equivalent to senator in USA hierarchy; formerly he was the chairman of Supreme Soviet of Crimea (Crimea Parliament) in 1998 – 2002).

1. When would the people of Russia, Ukraine and Byelorussia be prepared to carry out a large war?
2. Why was the fall of USSR without blood shed?

 During the consideration of the first question you would automatically get the answer to the second question, therefore, I begin from it.

Let’s consider all orderly: for a beginning – what is such a large war? What sense we would put into this understanding?
Large war – its such war as result of which the boundaries of warring government changes and (or) the warring factions incur large number of people and material causalities.
Beginning from such understanding of large war and applied it to not long a go in the past on Russian empire and USSR, large war – it’s Patriotic war in the year 1812, Crimean (Eastern) war in 1853 – 1856, Russian – Turkey war in 1877 – 1878, Civil war in Russia in 1917 – 1922 and of course both World Wars. And also little wars, all possible conflicts and other armed collision you could count several numbers, but here we would not make mention of all, just only limit our self after the period of Civil war: before the Great Patriotic war – it’s Spain, Hasan lake, Halhin Gol and after it – Korea, Vietnam, Egypt and Afghanistan. Apart from this in USSR in the end of XX century broke out several internal conflicts: Armenia, and Azerbaijan ( Nagorni Karabakh), Tadjikistan (civil war) Moldova (Pridnestrovie), Georgia (civil war: Abkhazia and Southern Osetija) and Russia (Chechnya).
As it could be seen, little wars within the USSR were many and some of such wars continuous till now, in 2005. That these wars are large wars for those small countries that were created after the fall of USSR – it’s another question, question of scale: considering for an example, Georgia alone out of the whole USSR, her war with Abkhazia would be taken as a large war. In conformity also with the three Slavic republics of USSR large war would mean, loses of about million (or more) killed and wounded.
On the territories of Russia, Ukraine, and Byelorussia were been carried out fighting actions – everybody aware of Chechnya: Byelorussia, Ukraine never took part in the war, at the same time Russia and Ukraine are taking part in conflicts occurring far away (across the sea) under the aegis of UNO.
Such are the situations of things, at a first glance it looks strange – why for an example no fighting going on not in the European part of Russia, not in Siberia, not in Ukraine, not in Byelorussia?
In Siberia it’s clear – the last large war took place under Ermak in the end of the 16 century, that is the indigene of Siberia never fought about 400 years back (truly, in the southern Siberia there was captured war in 1917 – 1922), - in 4 centuries they never fought war, why would they fight now? But why no fighting in the European part of USSR?!
Why?! Because have got tired to be at war!!!
Let me explain my conception.
The Great patriotic war ended in the year 1945 – ended in brutal blood shedding war in which the nations of the former USSR incurred several millions loses of people and uncountable material loses. Remember the map of the German – fascist troop movement: towards November 1942 enemy captured Pribaltic republics, Byelorussia, Moldavia, Ukraine and part of Russia, advanced to the north up to Leningrad, in the center – to Moscow, in the south – to Stalingrad and predgori Caucasus – to the line of Taman – Maikop – Nalchik – Mozdok. And now no war here (apart from Pridnestrovie) because the great Patriotic war stormed this area! Prednestrovie – it’s and exceptional case which only confirms the principle: Nations have got tired of war in the territory of the USSR occupied with Germans by the end of 1942 and this people do not want to fight even in 60 years after the war ended.
You could object to the fact, that wars in the Caucasus and Middle Asia occurred among people with different religions and because it’s a natural fact that people with on religion doesn’t fight against each other.. Against this assumption 2 regions could be mentioned; Tadjikistan (population mainly Moslems) and Georgia (population mainly Orthodox). In Tadjikistan the Tadjik fought against the Tadjik during the civil war in 1992: also similar case in georgic in that same year 1992!
Which means that, national and religious belongs are not the main reasons of the war in Caucasus and in Middle Asia in the 90s. Further, during the Great Patriotic war representative of all nations participated, began fighting in the 90s many representatives as well gave their life for Victory: due to this it shows that not all the nations in USSR are yet fed up in fighting, at the same time as observed in the present development of situation, it’s not like that: fed up of fighting (i.e. tired of war) only a particular part of such nations, and the people as a whole not fed up. But it follows that the people in Caucasus and Middle Asia gave all what demanded from them g\for victory, - and this is their happiness, that for an example Tbilisi never know such battle which thundered in  Novorossiysk  far away from it!
So, on the territory occupied by German – fascist troops towards November 1942 not the nations were belligerent, but there is a question here, when would they fight? Assumption that everlasting peace fell on this land – its naive: it’s better more to study the history!
It means that, the major question is when? German began Second World War after the year 1939 -1918 = 21 years after the end of the former world war; the people of Yugoslavia began fighting in the year 1991 – 1945 = 46 years after the end of the second world war; Sweden didn’t fight from 1743 till the current time (2005), that’s 2005 – 1743 = 262 years – in such case it could be seen from these examples in relation to the duration of peaceful period that spread on countries therefore we could not cover all but concentrate on the most important to us -  territory of European part of USSR.
As a starting point we select the civil war in the year 1917 – 1922 in Russia. In this war all great nations in Russian empire participated: the civil war covered almost all the territory of  Russian empire, apart from Siberia region which is the most strenuous region for life. In such a case, could be accepted that from the year 1920 the people in USSR lived in peace. Large war came in the yare 1941 – when the Great patriotic war began, dividing the territory of USSR into two parts: the first part – is the territory occupied by the Germans towards November 1942 (the date when the enemy troops made the most advanced movement) and the second part – Caucasus, Middle Asia, Siberia and far east.
The nations in the Middle Asia and Caucasus started fighting in the interval from the year 1988 (Nagorni Karabach) to 1994 (Chechnya). Approximately, all the conflicts in Middle Asia and Caucasus began in 1990, and then it means that these nations lived in peace from 1990 – 1920 = 70 years, that is each of these nations didn’t experienced large war for a period of 70 years. At the same time Pribaltic nations, as well as Byelorussia, Ukraine and almost all the European part of Russia lived in peace only 2005 – 1945 = 60 years: and towards 1990 they lived in peace only 1990 – 1945 = 45 years!
It follows to be noted again such fact – in the year 1941 the nations in the European part of the USSR were compelled to go into war, that is apart from their private desire they were induced to participate in the war unleashed by German Hitler – at the same time in 1988 – 1994 the nations in Middle Asia and Caucasus started fighting without been compelled, that is apart from internal reasons nobody attacked them. In most of the cases war busted out in order to became independent (Abkhazia, Southern Osetija and Chechnya), that means war caused by internal reasons, - the people of these 4 republics were not forced into war: they decided themselves, that they could not be anymore under “unnecessary” government to them, and took the choice to separate, and when the situation became highly tense, they went to the extreme and couldn’t come into an agreement on certain conditions, and  the war began on becoming  Independence. Among ethnics conflicts (Armenia and Azerbaijan) and civil (Tadjikistan, Georgia) also could not be called external compelled reasons – these are all internal conflicts.

Now we could answer both questions.
Question N 1.  When would the people of European part of USSR be prepared to carry out a large war?
Answer. In 2015 (1945 +70 = 2015).
Explanation. Over 70 years life without a large war majority of the nations in Caucasus and Middle Asia have accumulated strength for wars, without been compelled, therefore logically we would assume that Slavonic states: Russia, Ukraine and Byelorussia would accumulate similar strength after 70 years, that is towards 1945 + 70 = 2015.
Question  N2. Why was the fall of USSR without blood shed?
Answer: because the people of |Russia, Ukraine and Byelorussia haven’t rested enough towards the year 1991 after they ended the Second World War.
Explanation N 1. The fall of USSR took place on the 8th of December 1991 under the initiative of the leaders of Russia Ukraine and Byelorussia, that is the republics that 46 years back ended the great Patriotic war – over little period after it ended (46 years peace in the European part of USSR, lesser than 70 years peace in Caucasus and Middle Asia), therefore these three Slavonic republics were able to separate in peace.
Explanation N 2. But why the Soviet Union collapsed “without blood shed’’”?
But during the process of its disintegration on the territory were several local blood shed conflicts!
Answer. These were little conflicts on the scale of the whole USSR. A real ‘”Blood shed” of the Soviet union _ it’s civil war and military intervention in Russia in 1917 – 1922: during that time people died of hunger, sickness, terror and in battle (different figures given) from 8 to 13 million people, up to 2 million people immigrated, industrial production fell to 4 – 20% at the level of the year 1913, and agricultural production reduced about twice. If in case that USSR in the year 1991 collapsed ‘”with blood shed, then minimal number of those that would have been killed and died from hunger and sickness would have not been lesser than 1 million people (most probably figure – 3 – 4 million).
As observed, this never took place; therefore, the fall of the Soviet Union was without blood shed.

So, towards the year 2015 the people of Russia, Ukraine and Byelorussia would prepare for a large war, but would they actively fight? May be the people of these countries would enter into a large war after a century – in the year 2050 or after one and half century – in the year 2100? Or they would limit themselves in little conflicts ( in this case I don’t mean “fighting or conflict among themselves” – in case the wish is there, and war could be caused not only by misunderstanding neighbors, and as well across the sea!). But perhaps they would consider peace to war, like an example Switzerland? May be would be so…. The future is covered with cloud … who knows.. but that towards the year 2015 these nations would have great power – it’s no doubt! And to which direction the power would be directed? To better their welfare, or their cultural life or external aggression, and perhaps all together … I don’t know: now we could discourse about this only on certain level of probability. But one aspect is clear to me – discord creates conflict and conflict creates war. Representatives of hundreds of nationalities fought in the Great patriotic war as a whole, regardless of little differences separately among their representatives, - and conquered!
People of different nations, we should live in peace with each other! Either, if we would not live like this, then our enemies, then our enemies would feel our weakness and have more hope on own strength; at first powerful external enemy become more aggressive, and weak external enemy becomes more insolent, - and then they would instigate in us ethnics fire and attack - and then together with external war we would have internecine warfare! People, remember: the land on which our fathers and grand fathers shed their blood during the Great Patriotic war, gradually dry up under the affectionate rays of the sun and becomes more and more receptive to fire, towards another fire of the large war! And if (what shouldn’t be!) it occurs on our land, then the probability that it would be even more and civil, Great and in all the 3 Slavonic republics have no precise  accepted by all global national idea as if that which was in Imperial Russia: Orthodoxy, Autocracy, Nationality.
Therefore now it’s proper to cherish and foster the unifying tendencies with all, those who sincerely wishes; apart from this, it’s necessary to put out all possible differences on any level – and to put them out its necessary to be tolerance, inter compromise and benevolence.
People, let’s live together and live in peace.